Landscape changes elevate the risk of avian influenza virus diversification and emergence in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) threatens wildlife, agriculture, and humans. Along the East Asian–Australasian Flyway, a major waterfowl migration corridor and HPAIV hot spot, landscape changes are altering migratory bird distributions and increasing opportunities for wild–poultry interactions. By integrating empirical data into an individual-based model, we show that landscape change between 2000 and 2015 reshaped waterfowl migration, substantially increased wild-poultry spillover, and avian influenza virus (AIV) reassortment in poultry, our proxy for potential AIV diversification and emergence of novel subtypes. Risk regions expanded across southeastern China, the Yellow River basin, and northeastern China. These findings highlight the importance of landscape changes in potentially elevating AIV diversification and emergence, and the landscape dynamics should be integrated into future studies.